Angola: Angolan oil output falls in September
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 73.06 per barrel in September, down 7.5% from August. On 30 September, the commodity traded at USD 71.95 per barrel, down 8.8% from 30 August. Growing expectations of OPEC+ output hikes boosted crude prices.
On the production front, Angolan oil output fell to 1.12 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September from 1.17 mbpd in August. September’s reading outperformed national oil firm ANPG’s expectations of 1.06 mbpd but remained entrenched below the past-decade average of 1.44 mbpd.
Outlook: Oil output is set to edge up from 2023’s slump of 1.10 mbpd this year as a whole. Angola’s exit from OPEC at end-2023 has driven increased investor interest in the hydrocarbons sector, translating into a gradual recovery. Moreover, the conclusion of maintenance in the Dalia oilfield in early 2024 and the continued implementation of the government’s 2020-2025 Hydrogen Exploration strategy has added further impetus to the sector. Lastly, global tech giant SLB’s recent announcement that it will inaugurate its new facility in Luanda in November will enhance production efficiency and minimize losses in Angolan hydrocarbons production, boding well for oil output. That said, production will remain well below its past-decade average, as maturing oil fields will continue to weigh on the sector in the near term.
Panelist insight: Analysts at the EIU commented:
“We expect Angola’s oil production to rise modestly over 2025-29, to an average of 1.6m barrels/day (b/d) in 2029 (from an estimated 1.2m b/d in 2024), underpinned by increased foreign investment due to the Hydrocarbons Exploration Strategy. Having left OPEC in December 2023, Angola continues to auction production permits (which will run until 2025) while offering tax incentives and allowing joint ventures with Sonangol (the state hydrocarbons company) to ramp up oil production.”