Angola: Angolan oil output steady in February
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 75.15 per barrel in February, down 3.9% from January. On 28 February, the commodity traded at USD 73.56 per barrel, down 4.2% from 31 January. Prices retreated as rising U.S. protectionism stoked fears of weaker demand, and President Trump’s rapprochement to Russia raised prospects of higher supply.
On the production front, Angolan oil output was stable at January’s 1.05 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, underperforming the 1.07 mbpd that had been expected by the national oil firm ANPG. The reading also moved further below the 2015–2024 average of 1.39 mbpd.
In other news, ANPG signed a deal with TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil on 18 February to evaluate the potential of two oil fields located on the northwest coast of Angola.
Outlook: Our panel expects oil production to edge up from 2024 levels in 2025 to its highest level since 2020. Investor interest in the hydrocarbons sector has trended up since Angola’s exit from OPEC in late 2023; this year, new TotalEnergies projects and rising capacity at the Begonia refinery should boost demand. Moreover, new explorations should materialize as the government continues to implement its 2020–2025 Hydrogen Exploration strategy. Still, it will take time for these investments to outweigh the drag from maturing oil fields, and our panelists see crude production remaining below its past-decade average through our forecast horizon in 2029; in 2025, the oil sector should broadly stagnate. Weaker-than-expected demand from China is a downside risk.
Panelist insight: Oxford Economics’ Gerrit van Rooyen commented:
“Oil production recovered strongly last year following large maintenance at an oil field in 2023. We anticipate TotalEnergies will add two new oil projects in 2025, which will offset some losses from maturing oil wells. Nevertheless, we project crude oil output to grow at a more moderate pace of 1.0%, compared with 4.1% in 2024.”