Argentina: Economic activity grows at fastest pace in over two years in December
Latest reading: The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) increased 5.5% year on year in December (November: +0.4% yoy), the best reading since August 2022 and well above market expectations. Theis reflected a broad-based improvement, with readings for the agriculture, manufacturing, transport, hospitality and construction sub-sectors all improving in December.
On a monthly basis, economic activity rose at a more moderate pace of 0.5% in December (November: +0.7% mom). However, this still marked the third straight month of sequential growth and the seventh such expansion in the past eight months. Meanwhile, the trend improved sizably, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 1.8% in December, up from November’s minus 2.6% reading.
Panelist insight: On the reading, Goldman Sachs’ Sergio Armella said:
“All in all, real GDP recovered during the second half of the year having contracted in the first and second quarters of 2024 (positive sequential growth prints since May). Growth, however, slowed from the strong 4.1% qoq sa rebound in the third quarter to 1.3% qoq sa in the fourth quarter. The level of activity is now 1%-2% shy of the fairly similar cyclical peaks achieved in June 2015, November 2017 (historical high), and June 2022.”