Argentina: Decline in economic activity softens in September
Latest reading: The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) decreased 3.3% year on year in September (August: -3.7% yoy). Looking at the details of the release, the transport and construction sectors shrank at softer paces in September compared to the prior month.
On a monthly basis, economic activity decreased 0.3% in September, which was below August’s 0.9% expansion and marked the worst result since April. The reading contrasted market expectations for an expansion, though this was partly mitigated by previous months’ data being revised upwards.
Looking at data for Q3 as a whole, economic activity shrank at a sharper year-on-year pace compared to Q2 but rebounded in sequential terms, as expected by our panelists.
Panelist insight: On the reading and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“The sequential rebound in economic activity in 3Q24 was stronger than expected after the upward revisions of the previous months, leading to a higher statistical carry-over for 2024. As a result, we see upside risks to our 2024 forecast of -3.5%. For 2025, we expect an expansion of 4.0%. In our view, a higher statistical carry-over, the recovery in real wages and a better investment environment support our call.”