Argentina: Merchandise exports rise at a quicker pace in November
Latest reading: Merchandise exports jumped 31.6% over the same month last year in November, on the heels of October’s 30.2% surge. November’s result marked the strongest expansion since April 2022, and was driven by far higher agricultural exports thanks to normalized weather conditions. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 4.3% on an annual basis in November (October: +4.9% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 1.2 billion surplus in November (October 2024: USD 0.9 billion surplus; November 2023: USD 0.6 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 18.2 billion surplus in November, compared to the USD 16.4 billion surplus in October.
Outlook: Exports and imports should both record strong expansions in 2025, the former thanks to higher energy output plus economic liberalization, and the latter amid improved domestic demand.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“We see upside risks to our USD 17 billion trade surplus for 2024. For 2025 we still expect a surplus of USD 12 billion driven by lower commodity prices and higher imports consistent with a recovery in economic activity.”