Argentina: Merchandise exports gain steam in October
Latest reading: Merchandise exports soared 30.0% annually in October (September: +20.8% year-on-year). October’s outturn marked the fastest growth since April 2022, and was chiefly driven by higher sales of manufactured food goods thanks to improved weather conditions. Meanwhile, merchandise imports climbed 4.9% over the same month last year in October (September: -8.4% yoy), marking the strongest reading since October 2022 and hinting at a tentative recovery in domestic demand.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 0.9 billion surplus in October (September 2024: USD 1.0 billion surplus; October 2023: USD 0.4 billion deficit).
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion, significantly above the USD 6.9 billion deficit registered in 2023, driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector and lower imports amid a weaker currency. For 2025 we still expect a surplus of USD 12 billion driven by lower commodity prices and higher imports consistent with a recovery in economic activity.”