Argentina: Merchandise exports gain steam in September
Latest reading: Merchandise exports jumped 20.6% annually in September, following August’s 14.9% upturn. Manufactured agricultural goods and fuel exports saw double digit growth, likely linked respectively to improved weather conditions and gas output from the Vaca Muerta field. Meanwhile, merchandise imports declined 8.8% over the same month last year in September (August: -29.0% yoy), marking the strongest reading since November 2023 and hinting at improved domestic demand.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 1.0 billion surplus in September (August 2024: USD 1.9 billion surplus; September 2023: USD 0.8 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 15.1 billion surplus in September, compared to the USD 13.3 billion surplus in August.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“Our trade balance surplus forecast for 2024 stands at USD 17.0 billion, significantly above the USD 6.9 billion deficit registered in 2023 driven by the normalization of the agricultural sector after lower imports amid a weaker currency. For 2025 we still expect a surplus of USD 12 billion driven by lower commodity prices and higher imports consistent with a recovery in economic activity.”