Australia: Unemployment rate remains unchanged in October
Latest reading: The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was stable for the third consecutive month at 4.1% in October, in line with market expectations. October’s reading marked the joint-highest unemployment rate since January 2022. Meanwhile, the number of employed people rose by 15,900 in October in seasonally adjusted terms, deteriorating sharply from the 51,700 rise recorded in September. Both full-time and part-time employment increased in October. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted labor-force participation rate edged down to 67.1% from September’s all-time high of 67.2%—surprising markets slightly on the downside—while the underemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%.
Panelist insight: United Overseas Bank’s Sue Ann Lee commented:
“With slowing growth and labour supply continuing to recover, we expect the labour market to loosen a little more before the unemployment rate stabilizes around 4.5% and stay there through 2025. The pace of wage gains is also likely to ease further through 2024 and 2025. We had flagged the possibility that the first rate cut will not arrive until its Feb meeting in 2025 […]. And it now looks increasing likely that the RBA will only deliver the first rate cut in 1Q25.”