Brazil: Consumer and industrial sentiment retreat in January
Latest reading: The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) retreated further in January, receding to a near two-year low of 86.2, down from the prior month’s 91.3. As a result, the index moved further below the 100-point threshold, indicating starker pessimism among Brazilian consumers.
Similarly, the seasonally adjusted industrial business confidence index fell to 98.4 in January, deteriorating from December’s 99.7. January’s result was the weakest sentiment since May last year. As such, the index moved further below the 100-point threshold, signaling pessimism among industrial firms.
Outlook: January’s readings for consumer and industrial sentiment augur trouble for both private consumption and fixed investment outturns at the opening of Q1 2025. Our Consensus is for both components to growth at milder annual paces relative to Q4.