Canada: GDP growth improves in the fourth quarter
GDP reading: GDP growth improved to 2.6% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) in the fourth quarter, from 2.2% in the third quarter. This was up from the flash estimate of 1.8%, and beat market expectations. Lower interest rates, the GST tax break and export front-loading to get ahead of potential U.S. tariffs were key growth drivers. On an annual basis, economic growth improved to 2.4% in Q4 following the previous period’s 1.9% growth.
Drivers: The upturn reflected improvements in private consumption, fixed investment and exports.
Private consumption growth hit an over two-year high of 5.6% in the fourth quarter, up from the third quarter’s 4.2%. Public spending growth was 1.4% (Q3: +5.4% SAAR). Meanwhile, fixed investment bounced back, growing 9.9% in Q4, contrasting the 0.8% decrease recorded in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services bounced back, growing 7.4% in seasonally adjusted annualized terms in the fourth quarter (Q3: -0.8% SAAR). In addition, imports of goods and services rebounded, growing 5.4% in Q4 (Q3: -1.2% SAAR).
GDP outlook: Preliminary data shows real GDP rose 0.3% in January, driven by gains in mining, oil and gas, wholesale trade, and transportation, partly offset by declines in retail trade. Over Q1 as a whole, our Consensus is for solid GDP growth, buoyed principally by exports and private spending.
Panelist insight: Desjardins’ LJ Valencia said:
“Thanks to the strong GDP print to end the year and the rapidly slowing pace of population growth, real GDP per capita edged higher in Q4, reversing declines in previous quarters. The same is true for per-person consumption. […] However, that’s where the good news stops. The economy faces significant headwinds from the imminent threat of stiff US tariffs, in addition to the slowdown in population growth and the mortgage renewal wall. In particular, the tariff threats cast significant downside risks to economic growth and upside risks to inflation.”