Chile: Economic activity growth beats market expectations in November
Latest reading: Economic activity rose 2.1% in year-on-year terms in November, which was a deterioration from October’s 2.3% increase but above market expectations. The slowdown was largely driven by softer growth in manufacturing, trade and services.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity rose at a softer pace of 0.3% in November (October: +0.4% mom), but also came in above market expectations.
Panelist insight: On 2025, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“The outlook remains challenging. While business confidence (IMCE) and consumer confidence (IPEC) have improved throughout the year, both remain in pessimistic territory, and bank credit dynamics continue to contract over twelve months in real terms, suggesting that the recovery of non-mining investment will continue to lag. On the private consumption side, slack in the labor market, supply pressured inflation and elevated interest rates would prevent greater dynamism. However, tourism to Chile, mainly from Argentina, should continue to grow in the coming quarters, supporting trade, restaurants, hotels, among others.”
Goldman Sachs analysts said:
“All in all, real GDP continued to recover in October and November after a weak reading in September. Over the next months, we expect non-mining activity to continue on a positive, albeit moderate, growth path and for the output gap to remain around zero. After today’s print, we left our 2.3% real GDP growth forecast for 2024 unchanged but see risks as skewed slightly to the downside.”