Chile: Economic activity flatlines in September year on year and shrinks month on month
Latest reading: Economic activity was flat year on year in September (August: +2.3% yoy), the worst reading since December 2023 and below market forecasts for expansion. The slowdown was driven by weaker readings for the mining and non-mining sectors.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity fell at a more pronounced rate of 0.8% in September (August: -0.2% mom), the worst result since July 2022.
The September data means that over Q3 as a whole, the economy is expected to have expanded 0.6% over the previous quarter thanks to rebounds in manufacturing and services, notwithstanding weaker mining output.
Panelist insight: Assessing the latest data and the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“The data is more volatile than usual. The [downward] surprise in September could be partly due to the unusually long Fiestas Patrias holiday, while the others in the year might have been caused by the effects of climate shocks. Reaching our 2.5% GDP growth call will require a strong end to the year. The economy would need to grow by around 3.6% year-on-year in 4Q24, consistent with a quarterly expansion of 1%. The recovery of the economy this year, seen from the demand side, will continue to come from private consumption, while private investment remains weak.”