China: Export growth disappoints in November despite surge to U.S.
Latest reading: Merchandise exports increased 6.7% over the same month last year in November (October: +12.7% yoy), undershooting market expectations. A surge of shipments to the U.S. ahead of the inauguration of tariff-happy President-elect Trump failed to offset a slowdown in deliveries to the EU, Japan and South Korea.
Meanwhile, merchandise imports contracted 3.9% in annual terms in November (October: -2.3% yoy). This marked the weakest result since February 2024 and surprised markets, which had penciled in an increase, suggesting that domestic demand remains weak.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 97.4 billion surplus in November (October 2024: USD 95.7 billion surplus; November 2023: USD 69.1 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 957.4 billion surplus in November, compared to the USD 929.1 billion surplus in October.
Panelist insight: Nomura analysts said:
“We assume US tariffs will start impacting China’s exports from around mid-2025 and a revision of the de minimis rule sometime in 2025. We assume that, even if China is deprived of the permanent most favoured nation (MFN) status, it would only occur after 2025 and China could still retain MFN status in 2025. We expect China’s export growth to slow to 0.0% in 2025 from an estimated 5.4% in 2024.”