China: Merchandise exports rise at a quicker pace in December
Latest reading: Merchandise exports shot up 10.7% year-on-year in December following November’s 6.7% increase. December’s reading was above market expectations, and was driven by firms front-loading shipments ahead of higher expected U.S. tariffs—exports to the U.S. were up around 16%. Meanwhile, merchandise imports expanded 1.0% on an annual basis in December (November: -3.9% yoy), marking the strongest reading since July 2024.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 104.8 billion surplus in December (November 2024: USD 97.4 billion surplus; December 2023: USD 74.7 billion surplus). This was the largest surplus on record. Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 989.5 billion surplus in December, compared to the USD 959.4 billion surplus in November.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Nomura analysts said:
“Given the threatened tariffs, we expect export growth to remain robust in the near term because of front-loading. That said, due to a likely imminent trade war, we think export growth is likely to drop to zero in 2025 from 5.9% in 2024.”
United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen had a similar view:
“Exports continue to see some upside risks before the announcement of new tariffs by the new US administration. But overall, China’s exports still face the risk of contraction in 2025 if US’ additional tariffs on Chinese goods turned out to be larger or implemented sooner than expected. For now, we factor in marginal growth of around 1.0% for both exports and imports in 2025.”