China: Merchandise exports grow at a milder pace in September
Latest reading: Merchandise exports rose 2.4% annually in September, following August’s 8.7% increase, on the back of a broad-based slowdown across major subcomponents. September’s figure marked the slowest expansion since April and was notably below market expectations. Meanwhile, merchandise imports were broadly stable, rising just 0.3% over the same month last year in September (August: +0.5% yoy) amid declining global commodity prices and soft domestic demand.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 81.7 billion surplus in September (August 2024: USD 91.0 billion surplus; September 2023: USD 75.1 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 889.9 billion surplus in September, compared to the USD 883.3 billion surplus in August.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, United Overseas Bank’s Ho Woei Chen said:
“The low base effect will fade off in 4Q24, with exports and imports likely to see greater difficulty keeping up the gains. Furthermore, exports will face headwinds from a moderation in global demand and intensifying trade tensions could accelerate supply chain shift out of China with uncertainties looming over the US’ presidential elections. On the imports front, weak domestic consumption and an expected slowdown in commodity demand may continue to weigh on the import recovery.”