Colombia: Economic activity rises sharply in October
Latest reading: Economic activity growth jumped to 2.9% year on year in October, above September’s 1.1% and market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, the upturn was broad-based, with the agricultural and services sectors gaining momentum, and the industrial sector rebounding. As a result, annual average economic activity growth rose to 1.8% in October (September: +1.4%), pointing to an improving trend.
Meanwhile, on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity rebounded 0.8% in October, contrasting September’s 0.6% decline.
Outlook: Our panelists expect the economy to be expanding at a faster annual rate to Q3 in Q4, and a sharp increase in activity in October compared to Q3 supports this projection.
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Santiago Tellez commented:
“Activity will be supported by the gradual recovery of machinery investment and resilient household demand, driven by further disinflation gains, robust workers’ remittances in local currency, and a slowly improving consumer credit cycle. Conversely, elevated policy uncertainty and regulatory instability will bear on the depressed housing investment, which remains the main downside risk to our growth forecast.”