Germany: Merchandise exports swing into contraction in September
Latest reading: Merchandise exports contracted 1.7% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms in September, contrasting August’s 1.2% rise and surprising markets on the downside. Conversely, merchandise imports rebounded 2.1% on a monthly basis in September (August: -2.6% s.a. mom).
Meanwhile, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 18.5 billion surplus in September (August 2024: USD 18.0 billion surplus; September 2023: USD 20.3 billion surplus). As a result, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 249.2 billion surplus in September, compared to the USD 250.9 billion surplus in August.
Panelist insight: ING’s Carsten Brzeski commented:
“Looking ahead, the last 24 hours have darkened both the short and long-term outlook for the German economy. A second term in office for Donald Trump in the US with the expected new trade tensions will hit the German economy, which has 10% of its exports going into the US. It doesn’t require a lot of imagination to see US tariffs on European cars sending the German automotive industry into deeper problems.”