Ghana: Inflation reverses recent trend and accelerates in September
Latest reading: After slowing for five consecutive months, inflation rose to 21.5% in September from August’s 20.4%. Looking at the details of the release, the unexpected acceleration was driven by rising prices for food and beverages plus clothing and footwear.
Still, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 24.0% in September (August: 25.2%).
Finally, consumer prices increased a seasonally adjusted 2.80% from the previous month in September, contrasting the 0.71% drop logged in August.
Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to average slightly above Q3’s level in Q4, before declining again from Q1 2025 onwards; a high base of comparison and the impact of prior monetary policy tightening will drive the moderation in price growth.
Inflation will continue to trend down through 2028, although our panelists do not anticipate average inflation to return within the Bank of Ghana’s 6.0–10.0% medium-term target range until 2027. A weaker-than-expected cedi and further hikes to water and electricity tariffs are upside risks. International oil prices and domestic food costs are factors to track.