India: Industrial output expands at fastest pace since May in November
Latest reading: Industrial production grew 5.2% year on year in November (October: +3.7% yoy). November’s figure marked the best reading since May and exceeded market expectations. The reading reflected a broad-based improvement, with output growth in the manufacturing, mining and electricity sub-sectors all improving in November.
Meanwhile, the trend improved modestly, with annual average growth in industrial production coming in at 4.4% in November, up from October’s 4.2%.
Outlook: November’s print means industrial production rose 4.4% over October–November as a whole, comparing favorably with the 2.6% expansion seen in the prior three months. In accordance with this, our panelists expect GDP growth to have accelerated to slightly below the 10-year pre-pandemic average of 6.9% in October–December. That said, Q4 GDP growth will remain below that seen in recent quarters—bar Q3’s slowdown.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said:
“Infrastructure development will have a strong multiplier effects on growth over 2025-29 by boosting India’s operational environment. A trend of supply-chain diversification by international firms will support medium-term growth in the manufacturing sector as companies extend their operations into India.”