Japan: Merchandise exports beat expectations in November
Latest reading: Yen-denominated merchandise exports rose 3.8% in annual terms in November, up from October’s 3.1% rise and beating market expectations. That said, the print was still the third-worst in 12 months.
Meanwhile, yen-denominated merchandise imports shrank 3.8%, worsening from October’s 0.5% rise.
Overall, the yen-denominated merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a JPY 0.1 trillion deficit in November, compared to a JPY 0.5 trillion deficit in October.
Outlook: Our panelists expect exports of goods and services to increase at a robust pace in the fourth quarter in sequential terms, while imports of goods and services are projected to slightly decline. This suggests that net trade will boost GDP in the period. In 2025, exports growth is forecast to roughly quadruple from 2024. That said, larger-and-quicker-than-expected tariffs under the upcoming Trump administration pose a downside risk.
Panelist insight: Nomura’s Yuki Ito and Kyohei Morita said:
“After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, we estimate that real exports were down 2.7% m-m in November 2024 and that real imports were down 3.7%, marking a second straight month of declines in both cases. The Oct–Nov average was 2.6% lower than the Jul–Sep average for real exports and 2.5% lower for imports.”