Kazakhstan: Inflation declines to lowest level in over three years in September
Latest reading: Inflation edged down to 8.3% in September from August’s 8.4%. September’s figure represented the weakest inflation rate since June 2021. According to the preliminary release, price pressures softened for goods. Meanwhile, price growth for services was unchanged from August.
Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 9.1% in September (August: 9.4%).
Finally, consumer prices increased 0.46% in September over the previous month, below the 0.53% increase recorded in August. September’s result marked the weakest reading since June.
Panelist insight: Basak Edizgil and Clemens Grafe, analysts at Goldman Sachs, commented:
“Looking ahead, we expect headline inflation to edge down in the coming months driven by base effects (from last year’s tariff increases) and a slower rate of Tenge depreciation, with risks to the upside from a loosening of fiscal policy. We think the risks to our forecast of continued monetary easing by the NBK for the remainder of the year are skewed towards a delay in rate cuts until next year.”