Korea: Merchandise exports increase at a milder pace in November
Latest reading: Merchandise exports climbed 1.4% over the same month last year in November (October: +4.6% year-on-year). November’s result marked the softest increase since September 2023 and was half of market expectations. All-time-high semiconductor exports drove the rise, but were partly offset by lower vehicle exports amid strikes and adverse weather. Meanwhile, merchandise imports contracted 2.4% in annual terms in November (October: +1.7% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 5.6 billion surplus in November (October 2024: USD 3.2 billion surplus; November 2023: USD 3.6 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 49.6 billion surplus in November, compared to the USD 47.6 billion surplus in October.
Panelist insight: On the reading, Nomura’s Jeong Woo Park said:
“AI and non-AI export growth continued to diverge, which has increased the downward pressures on GDP growth due to smaller spillover effects. Amid increased structural headwinds and policy uncertainty (US trade policy), we expect the export sector to have less power to support GDP growth. We maintain our below-consensus 2025 GDP growth forecast of 1.7% y-o-y.”