Malaysia: Merchandise exports soar in December
Latest reading: Merchandise exports jumped to a 28-month high of 22.2% annually in December, on the heels of November’s 9.8% rise. December’s outturn benefited from a low base of comparison and import front-loading ahead of higher U.S. tariffs under Donald Trump. The improvement was broad-based, with shipments of electronics, refined petroleum products and agricultural goods largely spearheading the improvement. Meanwhile, merchandise imports shot up 16.9% in annual terms in December (November: +7.4% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 4.3 billion surplus in December (November 2024: USD 3.4 billion surplus; December 2023: USD 2.5 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 30.1 billion surplus in December, compared to the USD 28.3 billion surplus in November.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said:
“EIU expects Malaysia’s export growth to maintain its upward trend [in] early 2025. This will be driven by businesses frontloading export orders and accelerating shipments of critical semiconductor and E&E components in anticipation of a potential shift toward more protectionist US trade policies under the incoming presidency of Donald Trump, which begins in January 2025. Malaysia’s exports are likely to contract from mid-2025 as the Trump administration rolls out higher tariffs and other restrictive trade measures.”