Mexico: Merchandise exports decrease in February
Latest reading: Merchandise exports contracted 2.9% year on year in February, on the heels of January’s 5.5% increase. February’s figure marked the largest decline since June 2024 and was largely due to declines in agricultural and manufacturing shipments. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 8.3% in annual terms in February on a broad-based deterioration in inbound trade (January: +5.9% yoy), marking the weakest result since October 2020.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 2.2 billion surplus in February, coming in above market expectations (January 2025: USD 4.6 billion deficit; February 2024: USD 0.6 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 5.9 billion deficit in February, compared to the USD 8.6 billion deficit in January.
Outlook: Our panelists expect Mexico’s trade deficit to widen from 2024 in 2025 as the global trade war stemming from U.S. tariff hikes caps goods exports while import demand remains robust. That said, Mexico is set to avoid a high flat U.S. tariff as ongoing bilateral negotiations temper tensions with the country’s northern neighbor, which should support the external sector.
Panelist insight: Analysts Julia Passabom and Mariana Ramirez from Itaú Unibanco said:
“The better-than-expected result in the trade balance in February is a result of lower imports, in line with the deceleration of the domestic economic activity since the last quarter of 2024. Exports, on the other hand, remain at solid levels, still no clear sign of disruption given tariff discussions. […] The performance of oil exports will be influenced by domestic policies towards national sovereignty. Weaker internal demand and a slowdown in construction are likely to limit non-energy consumption and capital imports, particularly for non-residential projects.”