Mexico: Merchandise exports rebound in October
Latest reading: Merchandise exports jumped 11.2% on an annual basis in October, on the heels of September’s flat reading. The strong reading was largely due to double-digit growth in manufactured goods, which more than outweighed lower oil sales. Meanwhile, merchandise imports increased 9.7% in annual terms in October (September: -1.8% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 0.4 billion surplus in October (September 2024: USD 0.6 billion deficit; October 2023: USD 0.4 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 5.8 billion deficit in October, compared to the USD 6.6 billion deficit in September.
Outlook: In the near term, the threat of U.S. tariffs could boost Mexican exports as firms frontload sales. However, if tariffs come into force this would hit Mexico’s external sector, given the country’s heavy reliance on the U.S. market.