Mexico: Merchandise exports increase in December
Latest reading: Merchandise exports increased 4.9% on an annual basis in December, following November’s 3.7% increase. Higher mining, manufacturing and agricultural exports outweighed lower energy sales. Meanwhile, merchandise imports expanded 9.1% in annual terms in December (November: +5.1% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 2.6 billion surplus in December (November 2024: USD 0.1 billion deficit; December 2023: USD 4.3 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 8.2 billion deficit in December, compared to the USD 6.5 billion deficit in November.
Outlook: After solid export growth last year, the outlook for 2025 is much more uncertain due to the threat of U.S. tariffs; currently, around four fifths of Mexican exports go to the U.S. For now, the Consensus among our panelists is for ongoing export growth this year.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“A weaker currency along with expectations of outperformance of the U.S. economy should continue to support manufacturing exports during the next months. Weaker internal demand and a deceleration of construction should curb non-energy consumption and capital imports used mainly for non-residential edification. Institutional uncertainties and tariff threats should impact trade flows. Also, on the domestic front, the trade balance will be influenced by the recent presidential decree on the textile industry (35% tariffs on finished products and 15% tariffs on textiles), and a differentiated tax rate for marketplaces from countries without a trade agreement with Mexico.”