Mexico: Merchandise exports rebound in March
Latest reading: Merchandise exports rose 9.6% over the same month last year in March, on the heels of February’s 2.9% drop. This was despite U.S. tariffs imposed on Mexico in March, and was driven by higher oil and non-oil exports. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 7.1% in annual terms in March (February: -8.3% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 3.4 billion surplus in March, which was above market expectations (February 2025: USD 2.2 billion surplus; March 2024: USD 2.0 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 4.4 billion deficit in March, compared to the USD 5.9 billion deficit in February.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“The uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s trade relationship with the US will remain a challenge for trade flows. Looking ahead, the performance of oil exports will be influenced by domestic policies towards national sovereignty. Weaker internal demand and a slowdown in construction are likely to limit non-energy consumption and capital imports, particularly for non-residential projects.”