Nigeria: Nigerian oil production falls in September
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 73.06 per barrel in September, down 7.5% from August. On 30 September, the commodity traded at USD 71.95 per barrel, down 8.8% from 30 August. Growing expectations of OPEC+ output hikes boosted crude prices.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output fell to 1.41 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September from 1.44 mbdp in August, remaining below the 10-year average of 1.60 mbpd.
In other news, in late September, the government revealed that Exxon is considering investing up to USD 10 billion in the country’s offshore oil sector, as well as USD 2.5 billion per year to boost oil output by 0.05 mbpd over the next few years.
Outlook: Oil output is forecast to rise from 2024’s projected level in 2025 to reach its highest level since 2020. Rising production in the Dangote refinery will boost crude demand in the country, prompting an increase in production. Nevertheless, the country is expected to fall short of its OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd, capped by the country’s uncertain regulatory environment and fragile security situation. Renewed turmoil in the oil-producing Niger Delta is a key downside risk.