Qatar: New data reveals economy did worse than expected in Q1–Q3 2024
Print misses expectations: The statistical office released national accounts data for the first three quarters of 2024 in December, revealing annual GDP grew 1.5% in Q1, 0.7% in Q2 and 2.0% in Q3. Accordingly, the economy expanded 1.4% year on year in January–September (January–September 2023: +3.1% yoy), the weakest performance since 2020 and undershooting expectations.
That said, the statistical office revised up GDP growth for 2023 to 0.9% from 0.6%.
Non-oil-and-gas firms drive growth: Looking at a breakdown by sector for January–September, GDP growth was entirely driven by the non-mining and quarrying sector, which produced 2.9% more output than in the same period last year. Still, it slowed from the 3.2% rise posted in the first nine months of 2023. In contrast, the mining and quarrying sector saw its production fall by 1.1%, deteriorating from last year’s 2.9% increase.
This divergence suggests that the government is having some success in diversifying its economy away from oil and natural gas, with sectors expanding strongly including those related to education, culture and entertainment, accommodation and restaurants, and real estate.
That said, the divergence also reflects a poor performance from the mining and quarrying sector, with output of natural gas down in annual terms year to date.
Growth to remain moderate until late 2025: GDP growth is projected to average just above 2% in Q4 2024–Q3 2025, before picking up in Q4 2025 and through 2027 as a whole as the country significantly expands its LNG export capacity.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said:
“Economic growth in 2025 will be relatively muted as output in the hydrocarbons sector remains broadly flat ahead of a big expansion later in the 2025-29 forecast period. Output from the North Field LNG expansion project will start to come on stream from 2026, and will more than compensate for a projected weakening in global energy prices.”