Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia oil output to rise from April
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 71.74 per barrel in March, down 4.5% from February. On 31 March, the
commodity traded at USD 74.78 per barrel, up 1.7% from 28 February.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output was stable at February’s 8.96 mbpd (million barrels per day) in March, remaining at one of the lowest levels of the past decade.
Outlook: Saudi Arabia’s oil output should begin to pick up in April thanks to production hikes earlier agreed with OPEC+ allies. In May, Saudi Arabia’s oil output should rise more significantly—by just over 2% compared to the lows seen in March—following a surprise move made with seven other OPEC+ members to ramp up production more than initially expected.
Looking at 2025 overall, our panelists anticipate the first annual rise in Saudi crude production in three years. However, output is still expected to remain below the previous high of around 10.5 million barrels per day, a level unlikely to be reached again before 2028.
Panelist insight: On the recent decline in oil prices, Goldman Sachs analysts said:
“Following the fall in oil prices […] we have revised our forecasts […]. In Saudi Arabia, using new baseline assumptions for oil prices based on current forward pricing, we project that the budget deficit is set to widen to -4.4% and -3.8% of GDP for 2025 and 2026 respectively (previously -3.4% and -1% of GDP). We are also projecting the current account deficit to widen to -4.1% and -4.4% of GDP for 2025 and 2026 respectively (from -2.7% and -2.9% previously). Finally, we lowered our growth forecast to 4.5% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, from 5% and 4.5% previously.”