Saudi Arabia: Upside risks to Saudi oil output grow in September
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 73.06 per barrel in September, down 7.5% from August. On 30 September, the commodity traded at USD 71.95 per barrel, down 8.8% from 30 August. Prices were weighed on by market analysis suggesting that OPEC+ would focus ahead on beating out competing producers, rather than repressing supply.
Turning to production, Saudi oil output fell to 8.97 mbpd (million barrels per day) in September from 8.99 mbpd in August—one of the lowest levels of the past decade.
Outlook: After declining for the second year in a row in 2024, oil output should recover in 2025, nearing peak levels of around 10 mbpd by the end of the year; from December 2024, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies will begin hiking output. Risks to output are tilted to the upside, following media reports in late September that Saudi Arabia was considering ditching its 100-dollar target for oil prices.
Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs analysts said:
“We still expect three months of OPEC+ production increases, including a gradual rise of Saudi crude production from just under 9.0mb/d to just over 9.2mb/d, starting in December.”