Sweden: CPIF inflation rises more than expected in February
Latest reading: Consumer prices with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) inflation jumped to 2.9% in February from January’s 2.2%. The reading was markedly above the Riksbank’s expectations and 2.0% target, surprised market analysts on the upside, and marked a 13-month high. Looking at the details of the release, a faster increase in food prices and a softer decline in housing prices outweighed a fall in transport costs.
Still, the trend pointed was unchanged, with annual average inflation coming in at January’s 1.8% in February. Core inflation—which excludes energy costs as well as the effect of interest-rate changes—climbed to 3.0% in February from January’s 2.7% increase, surprising markets that had penciled in a slowdown. Meanwhile, consumer price inflation rose to 1.3% in February from January’s 0.9%.
Finally, consumer prices with a fixed interest rate rose 0.93% from the previous month in February, above the 0.38% increase seen in January.
Panelist insight: Swedbank’s Carl Nilsson commented:
“Food prices will most likely continue to increase at a faster-than-usual pace in the near-term, even though the February price increase was considerably larger than we had expected. On the positive side, March is set to be the first month since early 2022 in which the SEK contribution to annual CPIF is negative, amid both the recent appreciation and fading effects from the previous depreciation.”