Taiwan: Merchandise exports rise at a more moderate rate in September
Latest reading: Merchandise exports increased 4.5% annually in September (August: +16.8% year on year), less than half market expectations. The increase was driven by higher sales of IT products. Taiwan remained reliant on exports to the U.S., with exports to most other key trading partners either contracting or broadly stable. Meanwhile, merchandise imports soared 17.3% in annual terms in September (August: +11.7% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 7.1 billion surplus in September (August 2024: USD 11.5 billion surplus; September 2023: USD 10.3 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 86.3 billion surplus in September, compared to the USD 89.5 billion surplus in August.
Panelist insight: On the latest data and near-term outlook, ING’s Lynn Song said:
“Despite August’s record high trade surplus, the third quarter trade surplus stands at $23.5bn, down from $27.3bn in 2023. The data suggests that the contribution of external demand to third quarter GDP is likely to be lower than in previous quarters this year. Moving forward, a heavy concentration of export strength does add some risk to the outlook, but the recovery of semiconductor exports bodes well for fourth-quarter export growth. We see room for export growth to return to high single-digit growth in the coming months, while import growth will continue to look robust due to a favourable base effect.”