Thailand: Merchandise exports accelerate in February
Latest reading: Merchandise exports shot up 13.9% annually in February (January: +12.9% year on year). Meanwhile, merchandise imports increased 4.1% on an annual basis in February (January: +7.5% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 4.4 billion surplus in February (January 2025: USD 0.4 billion surplus; February 2024: USD 2.0 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed up, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 22.8 billion surplus in February, compared to the USD 20.4 billion surplus in January.
Outlook: Thailand is set to maintain a trade surplus in Q2 2025; however, it will likely be smaller than that of Q1. In 2025 as a whole, our panelists see goods exports growth slowing from 2024 on the back of rising U.S. tariffs—the U.S. is Thailand’s main export destination and accounts for almost 20% of all shipments. Additionally, Thailand will likely be among the hardest-hit targets of U.S. protectionism as it has one of the largest trade surpluses in goods with the States. Weaker-than-expected global economic growth and market sentiment also pose a downside risk to trade.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said:
“The tariffs will slow trade activity between Thailand and the US, as well as within the region, as US consumers are unlikely to continue to buy the same amount of goods that are will now be nearly 40% more expensive. This will lead to a sharp slowdown in Thailand’s exports to the US, the country’s top export destination. Notably, Thailand’s top export products to that market—electronics and electrical machinery, machinery, vehicles and parts (especially car tyres) and rubber products—will bear the brunt.”