UAE: Outlook for UAE oil output remains bright in January
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 78.19 per barrel in January, up 6.8% from December. On 31 January, the commodity traded at USD 76.81 per barrel, up 2.8% from 31 December. Prices rose to a five-month high on the heels of improving demand prospects.
Turning to production, in January, UAE oil output fell to 2.93 mbpd (million barrels per day) from December’s 2.97 mbpd and the lowest figure in nine months. As a result, UAE oil output remained at one of the lowest levels since late 2021.
Outlook: UAE oil output is likely to remain broadly steady until April, at which point the OPEC+ cartel is set to relax curbs on production and gradually raise the UAE’s quota by 0.3 mbpd over 18 months. This comes after the UAE’s quota was boosted by 0.20 mbpd last year. As a result, over 2025 as a whole, UAE oil output should reach record highs. The nation’s crude production should continue to trend up over the rest of our forecast horizon, with the country’s largest oil firm having recently raised its production capacity to 4.85 mbpd and planning to reach 5.00 mbpd by 2027.