UAE: UAE oil output to increase from April
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 71.74 per barrel in March, down 4.5% from February. On 31 March, the
commodity traded at USD 74.78 per barrel, up 1.7% from 28 February.
Turning to production, in March, UAE oil output fell slightly to 2.93 mbpd (million barrels per day) from February’s 2.95 mbpd. Thus, UAE oil output remained at one of the lowest levels since late 2021.
Outlook: The UAE’s oil production is expected to remain relatively stable until April, when OPEC+ begins to gradually relax its output restrictions. Under the updated agreement, the UAE’s quota will increase by 0.30 million barrels per day over the next 18 months, building on a 0.20 mbpd rise implemented last year. These adjustments are projected to lift the country’s output to new record highs in 2025.
Momentum has also been reinforced by a recent joint announcement from the UAE and seven other OPEC+ members, confirming an accelerated pace of production increases. As part of this shift, the UAE’s quota is set to rise to 3.015 mbpd in May.
Looking further ahead, output is poised to grow even more, with the national oil company aiming to reach 5.00 mbpd capacity by 2027—up from its current maximum of 4.85 mbpd.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts said:
“Although the UAE’s export and fiscal base is more diversified than many of its Gulf peers, lower oil prices, as well as the impact of US tariff rises on global demand and trade, will dampen export growth.”