UAE: UAE crude output remains soft in September; Brent prices fall further
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 73.06 per barrel in September, down 7.5% from August. On 30 September, the commodity traded at USD 71.95 per barrel, down 8.8% from 30 August. Prices were weighed on by market analysis suggesting that OPEC+ would focus ahead on beating out competing producers, rather than repressing supply.
Turning to production, in September, UAE oil output was unchanged at August’s 2.96 mbpd (million barrels per day), remaining at one of the lowest levels since late 2021.
Outlook: In early September, OPEC+ decided to postpone planned output increases from October to December, suggesting that UAE crude production may be lower in 2024 than previously anticipated. Although OPEC+ approved a 0.20 mbpd increase in the UAE’s quota this year, the country has actually reduced its output by 0.16 mbpd since January as part of voluntary cuts.
The outlook for crude production in 2025 is more optimistic. OPEC+ announced on 2 June that the UAE’s quota will gradually rise by 0.30 mbpd from January 2025 to September 2025. In addition, the cartel is set to begin hiking output from December 2024 onward.