United Kingdom: Retail sales growth eases in September but beats expectations
Latest reading: Retail sales rose 0.3% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in September (August: +1.0% mom), contrasting market expectations for a decline. Higher non-food stores sales drove the uptick.
On an annual basis, retail sales increased 3.9% in September, which was significantly better than August’s 2.4% expansion and marked the best result since February 2022. Moreover, the trend improved, with the annual average variation of retail sales coming in at minus 0.2%, up from August’s minus 0.6% reading.
Looking at Q3, retail sales rose in each month of the quarter, suggesting a solid private consumption outturn in the period—in line with panelists’ expectations.
Panelist insight: On the latest data and outlook, Nomura analysts said:
“Falling interest rates and a robust labour market might help support sales going forward, while slowing wage growth and weaker confidence might be limiting factors. UK consumption has been one of the weaker performers among major DMs, so the recent rises in sales represent a well overdue recovery.”