Vietnam: Merchandise exports gain steam in December
Latest reading: Merchandise exports growth jumped to 12.8% in annual terms in December (November: +8.2%), marking the highest print since September 2024. Meanwhile, merchandise imports expanded 19.2% annually in December (November: +9.8% yoy), marking the strongest reading since July 2024. Both results were likely buttressed by the frontloading of sales ahead of U.S. tariffs.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 0.5 billion surplus in December (November 2024: USD 1.1 billion surplus; December 2023: USD 2.1 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 23.9 billion surplus in December, compared to the USD 25.5 billion surplus in November.
Panelist insight: EIU analysts stated:
“In the near term Vietnam’s trade surplus is expected to expand, with export growth in the first part of 2025 driven by a recovery in global demand and manufacturers frontloading shipments ahead of likely US protectionist measures. However, under Mr Trump, US trade authorities are likely to adopt a more aggressive approach to addressing the trade deficit, ultimately leading to stricter tariffs and weaker import demand.”