Bank of Ghana opens 2026 with another jumbo cut in January

Another sharp cut makes BOG’s easing cycle the world’s fastest: At its 26–28 January meeting, the Bank of Ghana (BOG) cut its policy rate by 250 basis points (bps) to 15.50%, the lowest level since February 2022. The move followed a 350 bps cut in late November, bringing cumulative easing since June 2025 to 1,250 bps and marking the fastest monetary easing cycle globally.

Below-target inflation underpins shift to looser policy: The key domestic factors driving the Bank's decision included a sharp fall in headline inflation from 23.8% in December 2024 to 5.4% by end-2025—below the BOG’s 6.0–10.0% medium-term target band. Disinflation was broad-based, with core inflation also easing, pointing to muted underlying price pressures.

Monetary easing cycle set to end this year: The BOG did not provide explicit guidance on future decisions. Our panelists anticipate the current monetary easing cycle ending by Q3 2026, with forecasts ranging from 150 to 350 basis points of further cuts. The Bank will reconvene on 16–18 March.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Ghanaian interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 7 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Ghanaian interest rate.

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